David Hunter: 🚨 Intermediate Tops for Gold and Silver are Close ⚠

David Hunter, contrarian macro strategist. Welcome to the competent investor. Thanks for joining me. >> Hey Tom, good to see you again. >> David, you and I have been speaking for over five years now. I can't believe that. And in that time, you've been consistent in calling for a meltup

scenario that keeps, you know, to be fair, keeps on getting pushed higher and higher, way higher than many people thought it could. I mean certainly you and I I think so let's start with your targets at this point for how high you think the markets have yet to go here.

>> Okay. I raised targets because I don't think we've talked in a while. I raised targets uh in my fourth quarter letter back in early October uh for the equity markets. Um I raised my S&P target to 9500. uh had raised it back after the April

swoon right at the bottom uh to 8,700 from 8,000 and then with the move we saw over the summer and into the fall um it looked like there were legs so I raised it to 9500. Um my NASDAQ target now is

32,000 I've been raised in October from 30,000. um my um Dow target was raised from um I think it was 60 to 65,000 and my um my Russell target is which is

the most aggressive of all is 3,800 now. So it had been 3,400 and I raised to 38. So um I I feel like those are good numbers at this point. I didn't change them in my January letter. Um I I think

obviously they're still 40 and in Russell's case maybe um more than 40% away. Um but um I do think um we're going to see that kind of a final steep run into the top.

>> So David, what do you see as a as a catalyst for let's say ringing the the bell at the top here? Yeah, for me what will probably um convince me it's time to exit stage left or whatever um is going to be um

sentiment, you know, and we we are seeing sentiment obviously move up as I've said for a couple years now, you know, from the October 2022 low. Um most the institutional investors fought this market all the way up until

very recently. I mean even when they were you know giving higher numbers for their year ahead numbers um they were kind of couching it in very um cautious language and they're you know they're

mostly fully invested probably but they're more defensively invested and they you know they had one worry or another that always was there. So every and every time we saw a selloff of you know 3, four, 5% um they got bearish again or at least

started talking more negatively. So the wall of worry got rebuilt. >> Now we're at the point where I think you have more and more of the institutions getting on board the bullish bandwagon. Um and as we move up and retail's been

surprising even from the April swoon last last April. Um retail bought down there whereas the institutions were going negative and selling. Uh and you know the strategists out there I was one of the few that I raised targets when that happened. Um most most of the

strategists on the street were lowering targets and saying the tops in. Some were really getting very negative. um retail stayed pretty resilient, >> bought into that, saw it as an opportunity, and they've remained pretty bullish all the way through. So,

>> it's more the institutions that are getting on board. Now, I think, uh, in the next, you know, three, four, five months ahead, um, we're going to see that that sentiment move to a level where I'm going to become uncomfortable for the first time in a long time. I mean, I I

think uh for the first time in in this cycle from 2022, it'll be the first time where I'll be starting to talk about, you know, this thing's getting very very extended. >> Mhm. >> David, when we think about, let's say,

what what comes next, you know, you you've called for a a global bust um several times here. What what do you think I mean to to kind of reiterate this question what what do you think is the let's say the catalyst

for that for that bell at the top you know is it is it implosions of these sovereign debt bubbles like you know maybe the the yen carry trade is it sentiment starting to recognize its its own overbullishness or

overzealousness what what do you think that is >> yeah so the bus refers to the economy and the financial system as opposed to the market. You know, I'm I'm calling for potentially an 80% bear. So, they they go hand in hand. Um the bust

itself, I think there are several uh potential catalysts. Certainly, Japan is one. Um China's even though they're seeing some uptick lately, China's still got lots of problems. Um you know, even

even she I think has some problems. uh you know, they just had to um they just basically took out a bunch of the military leaders. Um so there's always those potentials out there. I think the one you need to focus on is really

Europe. Um and I think their banks are in rough shape as as are some of the others. I mean the the Asian banks. Um Japan's, you know, got the risks because of what's going on over there. Um, China certainly even though it's a closed

economy, you never know what's going to happen. Um, so, uh, basically it comes back to for me, the reason I've talked about a bus for so many years is it comes back to the fact that we are so far above the debt levels we had in

20089. Um, you know, we're we're so much more extended leverage wise. Uh, and leverage works both ways. It helps enhance on the upside, but when you get a recession, it really can exacerbate. And I worry, even

though our banks are in better shape than they were in 2008 by far, I mean, they were forced to decapize, to delever, um, give them more capital, but delever. Um, and but you look at Canada, Canada didn't learn our lessons. They

basically are where we were then. You know, their real estate is a a problem. and um their balance sheets are not what they were in 2008. Um Europe, I think there's several big European banks that I think have have risk. Um so I think

it's more likely to come out of one of those areas, Europe in particular, but it could be, you know, uh some of these other areas than it is the US. But the US obviously, you know, we're we're a small world now. um and counterparty

risk and everything else. Our banks will not skate through that. They'll be hit pretty hard. So, so I think that's probably the biggest thing is leverage. As I've said for a while, um nobody talks about it, but under the surface,

you know, the statistics look great coming out of the pandemic. Looks like we were fully recovered. Under the surface, a lot of things didn't recover. There's a lot of fragility in the system, I think, because you, you know, We closed down the entire world for a

quarter and then printed our way out of it. A lot a lot of small businesses in this country and a lot of I'm sure around around the world there's a lot of fragility. So as this thing rolls over I think some of that will start showing up. Um you know as I say when the when

the tide goes out you start seeing the things under the surface. Um I I think those are big things. And then the the other big one that always seems to be a part of a downturn is Fed policy and central bank policy. And I think it's

you're hearing you're you're kind of seeing it if you if you look I mean you know I don't study true inflation's numbers to know exactly what the difference is but you got true lifeflation showing what I think is really more likely happening which is we

are we are moving towards we're inflation's coming down we are moving towards deflation. Um and yet you've got central banks around the world and particularly our central bank and our our um Fed leader much more concerned

about inflation. And that's classically what central banks do is miss something at a turning point and and zig when they should have zagged and and so I think um a Fed policy era is is very likely here.

Now you can look and I've been very um defensively supportive of of Powell in terms of everybody's criticizing him particularly the president but many others for um for what the Fed is doing

and I go but step back you I've been the first one to say rich would be coming down faster etc but you look at the economy and you go how can you fault him he's brought inflation down from you know high single double digits to below 3%.

And although everybody kept pushing him to cut rates, he kind of did it more more carefully. And right now, you can't fault him. Now, that doesn't mean because I do believe that when we look forward, there's a lot long lag to some

of this stuff. When we look forward that, you know, we'll find that they are actually far too restrictive right now. and the price we'll pay for that is probably later this year. >> Mhm. >> So, it's those three things really that I think causes a bust.

>> Mhm. >> Before we get, you know, more into the weeds on Fed policy and and central bank policy around the world, what does a global bust look like to you, David? Is it a dramatic sell-off and and crash or is it more like a a grinding contagion

that spreads from sector to sector over the course of, you know, several months? >> Yeah. Well, again, bust refers to um what makes it a bust is it's a it's a a bad recession, but then it's accompanied

by a a financial crisis. So the most classic one to point to is surprisingly the one we just had in 20089. I think that one I don't call a bus because we kind of pulled back from the cliff. You

know we were on the edge of the cliff and when they almost shut down the commercial paper market which would have really hit some big corporations very hard and and you know others um they they acted just in time to avoid a bust.

This time I think just the mindset um you know that our central banks say we're never going back to that place again. We're not going to do QE infinity. We're not going to means there's going to be a lag to when we respond properly. And it's in that pause

in that delay that I think we can go over the cliff this time. So it's it's basically 20089 on steroids is what I describe it as. Which means for a short period of time, if you can imagine October of 2008, if they hadn't

um made sure the commercial paper market stayed open, if they hadn't bailed out the banks immediately, etc., um we could have seen the bust then. Mhm. >> This time around, I think because it it's the next cycle basically, um

they're going to be very reluctant to repeat what everybody on Wall Street as well as uh um on Main Street thinks was a mistake. >> Um you know, the So, so it's that delay. It's not that they won't come in. They'll come in bigger than they've ever

come in, but there's going to be a a delayed response. So, I mean, you can see it already in terms of of Paulo and the Fed. They're still fighting the last war. They're so worried about inflation right now, and they're, you know,

they're they think, you know, they they haven't learned the lessons of the past of leads and lags and they're kind of everything is they don't want to make mistakes. So, everything is right to the minute. You know, it's like what what was CPI this week? What was, you know, what was the jobs number last month? And

you know the leads and lags to policy are you know six nine months at least and so you're guaranteeing it can be late and when you have the leverage we have in the system that that lateness is a problem. So so I I I'd say a bust I I

think overall the cycle will be um not necessarily any longer than 20089. I've I've said you know the bust itself may be 12 to 18 months the market will lead the bust coming out. So the market might

be the bare market might last 9 months you know it's um or it could even be faster but but it'll it won't be you know it won't be two months. You'll have different legs to the bare market. It won't be straight from top to bottom. You might go down 30%, come back

halfway, go down, you know, another 40 or 50%, come back halfway, and then have a final sell-off. So, it'll take, you know, those consolidation or bare market rallies might last a month or two. >> So, it all depends on how much those

counter rallies, how much time they take as to how long the bare market lasts. So, you know, could be a year, but it might might be shorter. >> Mhm. You know, it's interesting to think about the the nuance of how the Treasury and the Central Bank

are operating right now and how, you know, in a way we're we're coming we're coming quite close to the the end of Powell's term, right? He's done at the, you know, in May here. But I was listening to um Secret or uh Treasury

Secretary Bessant the other day in you know a bit of a longer form interview and he was talking about the idea that they're not they're not against coming in to make sure that if there's a liquidity crisis

that they respond accordingly but as as you're saying they're not they they don't want to completely support Wall Street and and the stock markets. But in a way they what he's kind of signaling is that if there's a you know more so a banking crisis or a a specific

liquidity crisis that they're willing to step in in that case. So do you think that there is, you know, a little bit of a shift of strategy considering Bess's words and also

the the idea that maybe the the new Fed chair is more aligned with a a strategy like that? >> Yeah, for sure. I think you're going to see as we move towards May um that you know the Fed the Fed will not be

fighting the administration like they are now. Um I you know I I really um am torn because I I do think Powell can be a little political >> and by now I mean Trump's alienated him

for sure by calling him a etc. So, so even if he's trying to be objective, it's hard for anybody to be objective when that's who you're facing, you know, what facing off with. Um, but generally I would, as I said before, you know, you can't fault the policy and it's not just

Powell. He's got, and it's not because he's browbeating him. He's got most of his his um committee pretty much in line with his thinking. Um, and so, you know, so there may be some politics there, but more than that, I think they're looking

back, you know, they're fighting the last war, uh, or they're overly concerned about inflation when they shouldn't be, etc. So, >> they're still they're still fighting transitory inflation, right? >> Yes. Right. Yeah. Exactly. They don't want to be accused of making that mistake again.

That's exactly the war they're fighting. Um, >> well, I mean, David, this brings up a really interesting point, though, is that, you know, we're looking at replacing the Fed chair, which is one vote out of, I believe it's 12, right? So, how much how much weight or is it is

it basically the the overall direction that the Fed chair has influence over the entire committee? And how does that, you know, do do we do we think of the Fed as one person when in reality you

need a consensus among 12 chairs? Yeah, every every Fed chair has a little bit different. Um, I guess, you know, Greenspan certainly had pretty much full control of his. Um, Vulkar pretty much

control of his and I think Powell's got, you know, certainly most of the committee pretty much has his back. So um so the Fed chairs got influence if things are kind of on uh you know uh

where there's you know the committee is split his he he can weigh in and carry a lot of weight and and particularly when he's got a relationship with the committee like Powell does. Um, but you know, Fed chair can be overruled if if

the committee and you know, if if if most of the committee, I'm not saying this is the case, but if most of the committee had TDS, um, it wouldn't matter who the chair was because they would probably fight him and it it would be very dysfunctional. I don't expect that at all. And frankly, I

think the economy is going to be u making the decision for them. as I've I've said um for a long time, you know, I'm I'm definitely somebody that supports most of what Trump does, but I've said it's a mistake to be going

after Powell that the bond market sets rates or determines rates. You know, the the Fed controls the overnight money. That's it. And yes, the Fed certainly, you know, Wall Street hangs on every word and, you know, on every meeting, but in truth, the bond market, if they

see um inflation coming down or the economy softening, they're going to move rates before the Fed, no matter what the Fed wants to do. So, >> so I just think it's been a lot of wasted capital fighting Powell and, you know, you come across looking like a

brood, but but um you know, I get it. I understand he he believes that rates are hurting the housing market, hurting the economy, etc., and he wants to bring them down. But it's not the Fed, you know, if the Fed cut too too

aggressively too soon, it can have, as we saw, you know, a year ago, more than a year ago, you know, it can have um the opposite effect. You know, rates, long rates can go up. So, so I I you know I

think we make too much as investors um particularly Wall Street uh spends too much time talking about who's going to be Fed chairman and and you know um what's the effect going to be if Paul stays on or what have you. You know, we

don't like dysfunction. I don't want to see that. But I don't really think it's going to make a a lot of difference in terms of the ultimate um outcome or even shape of of the next year. You know, it's um I think we're heading for a bust no matter who the Fed

chairman is. I and and in terms of the administration and I I think Scott Besson is the best Treasury Secretary in history. Um, I think we're really lucky to have somebody who not only came from Wall Street, but at least for me, he

thinks like I do. I mean, he really does have a control, an understanding of markets and and macro in ways that nobody that's been in that place before has. >> Um, you minutian did pretty good job and, you know, other Ruben was pretty

good. Um, I guess that was with car uh Clint. Um, but you know, Besset really does have um a handle on all of that and and he's also um not afraid to speak his

mind and some things. You know, he's not he's not a wallflower, that's for sure. Um he's well spoken in terms of explaining himself and explaining things. Um so that's a big plus. um you know, Trump still has, you know, when he

wants to do something, he'll do it. But but um and they they're pretty much on the same page on a lot of things. Um what what I would say though is that um this administration, this Fed, Besson, none of them are

looking for a bust. I you know, people say, "Oh, do they know this is coming?" but they're just not going to tell the public or no. This is this is something that's totally not on anybody's radar or hardly anybody's radar, certainly not any policy makaker's radar. So, it's

going to surprise when it comes. And what I've said about Fed policy, and I think it's true, even if Bessant has inclinations towards, you know, responding quickly, it's not just the res the quick response, it's right-size

policy. And if you're going to have something where um things are coming apart much faster, much deeper than even 20089, nobody's going to be ahead of time prepared for what it's going to take to

turn that around. And then add in the fact, as I said before, I think the inclination is not to repeat the mistakes of 20089. So, they're going to be coming in gradually, initially, very gradually, and and reluctantly,

and then realize like a deer in headlights, oh my god, that's not nearly enough. And then they come with another tunch. That's not nearly enough. And so, it's going to take them a good long time to get a good luck time in terms of

crashing markets and crashing economies. um you know a day is a long time in that environment or a week or a month. So, but it'll take them time to get the right size policy. In the meantime, things are going to continue to be free falling. So, and if I'm right that we're

going to have a banking crisis of ma of a magnitude even bigger than 20089, um you know, that's you're going to have bank failures dominoing across the world. And again, um, my focus is the US and the Fed.

This is a global bust. So, it's going to take a lot of and we we we also don't have cooperation globally. I mean, we've got a lot of um, you know, can you I I not sure how Mark Carney and and Donald Trump are going to um meet in terms of

minds immediately. you know, they'll get there because they're going to have to. But, you know, there's going to be a lot of that that, you know, we we just we're in a world where people make stupid decisions because of their, you know,

their politics. >> Mhm. Well, that's actually, you know, where I wanted to go next is is this, you know, you mentioned the idea of a banking crisis. How how will banks be affected? And does that, you know, put into jeopardy

people's savings that they have held within these banks and does the the the FDIC really, you know, the FDIC insurance really mean something at that point? Yeah, that's one place where I've been pretty adamant that um that you know the ultimate

response is going to be I think just looking at the US it could be as much as 20 trillion or more in terms of new QE. So we did five QE 5 trillion QE in response to the pandemic. >> Um we did 3.7 in QE after 2008 or in

response to 2008 and that came over a few years. Yeah, >> this could be 20 trillion coming in like we saw in the pandemic coming in over the course of a year or 18 months. Um, that money is going to be used in so

many different ways to try just like we saw in the pandemic. you know, they did so many new things that they had never done before and and tried to figure out ways to help small business, help Wall Street, um you know, provide uh loans to

those that really needed something to just get through this. Um you're going to see all that again, I'm I'm quite sure. And it means there'll be plenty of money because they'll they'll do whatever it takes to stabilize the system and turn it up. That means there'll be plenty of money to fund. I

have zero doubt that the FDIC will be funded to whatever their li liability needs are to meet meet the you know the 250,000 um per institution threshold. So if somebody has 250,000 in a bank uh that's

FDI FDIC insured um they'll get that back. Beyond that I can't know. I mean I would presume that we might see even beyond that protected but you know in Europe and other places bailins are very

possible but I think in the US I'm very comfortable and saying up to that 250 per institution um you shouldn't worry >> you know it's interesting to try to consider what happens in that case though like let's say you have less than

250 in I I believe it's each account right um It's each each I think it's each institution. >> Okay. >> Um >> um well either way if you >> so you could have you could have three accounts but if you exceeded to 250

you'd be above the threshold. So um so it'll be your sum total in that institution can't go over 250 for the insurance. I think I'm right about that. >> Okay. So in that case though if they come in with you know $20 trillion worth

of liquidity to you know crop up or save the system that 250 you know once you adjust it for that extra $20 trillion that is going to be created you know the

the real value of that currency just gets destroyed by that liquidity as well. Well, keep in mind there are leads and lags at 20 trillion. >> Of course, I my my cycle uh forecast or my my long-term macro forecast is that f

as I say this is my talking about 20 trillion is not a um an endorsement that that's what they should do. I'm just saying that's inevitable is that's you know whatever the number is that's what they're going to have to do to save the system and they will do that. I have no doubt. So, but then the lag the lagged

effects of that is going to be inflation and ultimately hyperinflation or what I define as hyperinflation which could be 25% inflation by the early 2030s. But there's, you know, the first year out of a bust. We're coming out of what I think will be a deflationary bust. So, it'll

take, you know, take that first year just to get to low inflation again and you know, low singledigit inflation. And then second year you might be mid to above mid inflation, mid single digit. Uh and by the third year you're you're

approaching double digit inflation and by the fourth and fifth year you're you know you're roaring straight up like silver is now. Um so um so yeah, it's going to lead to a real purchasing power problem down the road, but in the in the period where you're in deflation, you

know, you're just glad to get your money back and having your money back while inflation's not moving forward, um you'll be fine. It's what you do with that money in the ensuing years that will make a difference. >> Yeah. >> As to whether you're one of those that says, "Yeah, I have 250, you know, just

using a number. I have $250,000, >> but it now, you know, is only buying me what 100,000 or $150,000 used to buy me. Um, so yeah, that's I mean that is going to be the problem to this, but as I say,

I think it's inevitable that they they'll be they'll try other things before they get to that, but ultimately the only thing that can save a free falling system or the only thing that can move fast enough to save it is cash is money. And so you'll see that you'll

see other things, you know, they'll legislate things to try to save pension funds and save the money market funds. they'll probably have the, you know, we won't break a buck policy again that they had back in 20089. Um but um but you know, ultimately,

yeah, the ultimate result is that we go from this this bust into an inflationary cycle. that's going to be our our undoing because you're also going to see to to do 20 trillion in QE

means they're probably going to do something equivalent in terms of treasury borrowing, >> government borrowing. So that or if it's not 20, it's certainly a big number. So that the you know the the amount of debt

that I quote the global number of 330 trillion today by the time we get through the bust and on the other side of the bust it could be 450 to 500 trillion. So, we're not going to be deleveraging in this process. We're

actually going to be more leveraged and then we're going to have that much higher leverage um facing 15 20% inflation rate that inflation interest rates. >> And there's, you know, in exactly as you explained, you know, it's not it doesn't

end up being we're trying to save the dollar, therefore we have to sacrifice the bond market. It ends up being the idea of basically sacrificing both through probably undulating, you know, back and forth push and pull um kind of tugof-war, but at the end, you know,

we're going to end up with both of those things being destroyed. >> Exactly. Yeah. The end result is a dollar that now the dollar will get bit up, I think, in the second half of the bust as people see how bad it is. They fleeted safety a dollar. >> Yeah. you know, because we're we're

still the safest place. There may we have plenty of problems, but people will see this as the place where they trust it most uh that they'll get their money back. So, the dollar gets bit up as people buy treasuries from overseas, etc. Um and um so you'll have one last

on the dollar. I'm calling for 82 on the dollar pre what I call pre-bust meaning this year >> um sometime this year. And then um in when it starts going the other way, I think I think you could see 120 or higher on the dollar. So you have one

last harrah. >> Mhm. >> And then I wouldn't be surprised to see the dollar under 50 by the end of the decade. So you know and and going south from there. Um just remember we're not we're not in isolation on this. It's all

fiat currencies because they're all going to be doing the same thing. Um, and so what that speaks to is obviously golden golden commodities do very well. Uh, if you want if you want to preserve your purchasing power postbust,

that's going to be your best way to do it. >> Well, that's what I was I was going to say is like how do we transport value through that time? And maybe we need to separate this in, you know, bust then postbust, you know, how do how do we how

do you think about separating that and really protecting the let's say the value that you've built through that time? >> Yeah. So I the probably the best way I can answer that is to talk about you know I've talked about the equity market in terms of its runup here

>> and then it'll get hit to the tune of I think 70 or 80% on the downside in the bust. Same thing will happen with most assets. The only asset that I see uh any asset of substance that I see holding up in the bust and actually appreciating

the bust is the US Treasury >> um bond or across the Treasury curve. You know, the the um notes and bonds and even the bills uh if rates are coming down dramatically because they're printing money uh and and we're in

deflation uh those appreciate. But almost every other asset, certainly commodities, certainly um precious metals, certainly the equity markets, um junk bonds, um even even higher level investment grade bonds, they'll all be

going down based on the risk that the economy's really hitting corporations hard, hitting um demand hard. So, so going into the, you know, in the bus, that's what you're going to face is a bare market and a lot of assets. Coming

out of the bust, if we print that kind of money, you're, you know, let's say we're we did go down 80%. So, if if if I'm right and we go to uh I'll just use the SP. if I'm right and we go to um 9500,

that's basically um um around 2,000 I think is where the S&P would sell off if it were an 80% decline. So um if you come out of the bust with all that money flowing into

the capital markets first and then from there into the economy, there's there's going to be a cyclical market. I've said we're making a secular peak in the stock market that won't be seen again probably for decades. >> Um, so the the highs of this market that

we're in now probably won't be seen for decades. But if you if you come out of a a market that's down 80% and the S&P goes from 2,000, it could easily go up threefold and be back at 6,000 or 7,000

or higher and not get back to the peaks because you're down so far, right? So that means there's going to be a cyclical bull market where people can make a lot of money in the first probably the first 18 months out of the bottom. After that, as interest rates start moving up pretty pretty fast, the

PE multiples start getting compressed and and corporations start having to um see margins starting to get squeezed. Again, it's three, four years out for sure. Um so that profits are more

constrained. They they might be growing but not growing that fast. Um interest rates might be moving up towards double digits. All of a sudden P multiples on that that kind of constrained earnings means your stocks aren't going anywhere.

So then you the trick then is to look at the sectors and the stocks uh the companies that can produce earnings that can outpace inflation. And where is that? That's typically going to be industrials and commodities. So, so a

company like Caterpillar because they service the commodity industry is going to have great earnings, right? And they'll have to deal with the cost rises, but they'll be able to price just because they'll have strong demand. Um so, so industrials will do well. Um

certainly the precious metals will be going through the roof. Um, and other metals. Copper I think could go copper. Copper I have a copper forecast right now for prebust of $8 and I may be low, but I'm certainly high on the street. I I have a $6 number raised at seven at

the beginning of 2025. Then we had that tariff news and it went down to like 450. I kept my $7 number um which I had yeah early 25 I put in and it didn't look like that was going to happen. And then obviously the last few months is

starting to move. I think my $8 number that I put in in January may prove low. Um but it's you know it's the end of cycle type pricing and then in the bust copper could fall to1 or $2. I mean and

then coming out of there I wouldn't be surprised to see copper north of 20. So you're going to see big runs in commodity prices. Energy is a big one. I have a um I've been the bear on the street in energy from 2022 when they

invade when Russia invaded Ukraine. I've been bearish from one probably 130 down certainly 120 down and I've been using a number of um once it once it got below 100 I I lowered my number to mid60s and

then lowered it to 60. So I'm at this point I think you're in a trading range till the bust hits, you know, so low 50s to mid60s. If we hit something in Iran that's, you know, not quick, it could certainly

spike, but basically oil's under pressure, demand is soft, and supply is large. >> Um, I think you're going to see 30 or below in the bust. Um, and then coming out of the bust, I think by the early

2030s, energy could be $500 a barrel. So, energy should be at the top of people's list in terms of buying what you buy on the other side of the bust. >> Mhm. >> And so, same thing with precious metals. I'm looking for

um, you know, my current target on silver is 125. I'll probably end up having to raise that um in the next month or two. Um but um I think it it can fall in half or more in the bust um and then um go to

$500 has been my long held target for early 2030s. I'm probably going to be low on that now that we've seen what's going on recently. Um, and gold I've had a long current target of 5,500. I'll probably end up having to raise that sometime.

Um, pre-bust. I think by the early 2030s, my my numbers been 20,000. So, so again, you can see coming out of a bust and gold will get hit not as hard as silver, but get hit in the bust. So, let's say let's

say the target becomes 6,000 and it falls to 4,000. >> Mhm. um from 4,000 it can go up fivefold to 20,000 and who who knows if that's even a a high enough number. So, so I think commodities in general, you know,

all kinds of metals, steel, aluminum, etc., will have pricing power and we'll be able to outpace inflation and have a very big, we haven't had an industrial boom like that since the late 70s, early 80s. And that's what I think we'll be

looking at is something that's, you know, we're we're obviously doing a lot of reshoring that requires a lot of commodities. um that's going to continue uh and and so there will be places after the bust where you can make a lot of money, but if you're in the wrong places

and you're still buying growth stocks when interest rates are going from close to zero up to 20%. You're going to be very sorry that you're in the wrong places. If you're buying utilities because, you know, yes, we're going to see more electric demand,

you're gonna be pretty pretty disappointed because they're bought for their dividends and, you know, interest rates are going through the roof. So, so it's going to be very important to know that in a new cycle, you need to focus on new leadership and that leadership is

going to be commodity led. Mhm. Well, David, that's another, you know, question I wanted to run by you is this idea that, you know, a lot of the bull run in gold has been pointed as being

driven by central bank buying over the last, you know, four or five years. This seemed this theme doesn't seem to be slowing. So how does you know obviously in a in a big liquidity crunch everything goes down because of margin

calls you know anything that is liquid gets sold but how do you think the price of gold gets affected in a time like that because of those you know large institutional buyers that have been consistently and and constantly driving

that price. Yeah, they'll they'll certainly soften the blow. That's why I say, you know, you might have a um a you know, 6,000 4,000. I'm not saying that's the right number, but you know, that's obviously a 33% drop uh as opposed to an

80% drop in the stock market or maybe a 70% drop in silver, you know. Um so, so that will be a a softening effect that will certainly ameliate some of the decline. Um, but you know, if we're in

deflation and the and the world's falling apart, there's going to be plenty of rethinking gold and saying, "Well, you don't earn anything. Gold doesn't pay a dividend and doesn't pay interest, doesn't do anything." Um, there's a lot less demand

for gold other than monetarily, other than for safety, uh, or security. Um, and I'm not sure that's going to hold up here. you'll you've seen it before. I mean the the thinking all of a sudden changes. So the central banks won't be so anxious to do that. Um that the

dollar moving up during the bust will mean they won't be so much focus on what the alternative needs to be. What do I need to own against the fiat currency? So there'll be lots of reasons for selling it along with what you said which is you know you sell what you can.

Um, so I I think it'll, you know, it's not going to hold up as a um, you know, in in whole. It may outperform, but it's not going to hold up in a bust, particularly a deflationary bust. >> Um, but it will be certainly one of the

assets on the other side of the bust. >> Yeah, it might be. So, so would it be better to be in cash at that point and then reby gold or you know does does gold pull back the least in your mind

through that? it would everybody has to kind of decide what you know what makes sense for them but it certainly from a mathematical standpoint my guess would be >> that cash basically if you've got most assets falling

uh cash without any gains but just no losses is a huge thing and like I said as long as you have your money spread um so that you don't lose that cash um cash would seem to make a lot of sense Um, treasuries would make even more

sense because I, you know, as long as the as long as the, uh, government has a printing press, as long as the Fed still has its printing press, um, you pretty much don't have to worry about defaults on US treasuries. I can't say the same

thing in other countries because, you know, I don't know exactly. The likelihood is that's probably true elsewhere, too. Um, that money's, you know, it's going to be like 2008. nine. You know, as long as there's a printing press, um the governments aren't the

sovereign debt isn't at risk, right? >> Yeah. The problem we have is going to be when you skip over to the um the other side of the recovery cycle. Um if inflation moves up to 20 20 or 25% in

this country if interest rates follow that as they do um there's a good chance that T bills will be and I I was a you know a money manager back in 1981 and two there's a good chance that treasury

bills will be over 20%. There's a good chance that the long bond will be somewhere between 15 and 20%. And we'll have twice probably twice the debt we have today to to service.

That equation doesn't get solved, right? You're you're bankrupt. you you know the government won't have enough um revenue to even pay the interest on the debt never mind fund military fund welfare etc. Somewhere along the line as

we approach the end of this decade we cross over at that place where you know because early on they'll they'll be printing more money to and and selling more bonds to help fund their needs. But as as that fuels more

inflation and and um rates move up faster than they can keep up with it, you cross over a point where that makes sense because the more you print, the more you owe or the more the more you can't keep up with it. Um so there is a

point I think late this decade where we cross over and the reality is we've lived way beyond our means. We no longer have a way to allow that. You know, the printing press is closed down. You can't print money because it just is like pouring gas on a forest fire, you know.

And so once that happens, the game's over. The Ponzi scheme has ended. >> And I think then it's a matter of time. You might be able to kind of um take from Peter to pay Paul for a little while, etc. But I think by the time you

get to somewhere between 2033 and 35, you have a collapse of the system. You know, not just the US, but around the world because we all have done it. >> It's been one huge Ponzi scheme that started post depression, post Great

Depression, and you know, built up slowly early on, but we're now you know the pane scene's gone parabolic, right? It's that we're we're racing ahead in terms of our debt numbers and and all of

that at levels we never saw before. So that's a sign that you're going to burn it burn that whole thing out. And it's like, you know, it's like watching, you know, a parabolic stock when it reaches its crescendo and rolls over, it goes

down almost as fast as it went up. >> Yeah. So David, when we see when the when we see the strength in the metals at that time, what do you think happens to the mining stocks, the the precious metals mining stocks?

>> I I think they are going to be huge winners. >> You know, I think the the postbust era, you're going to see lots of money made. It will be it will be the dot stocks of the early 2000s. It will be the AI

stocks of today. You know, mining stocks will be big big winners as will a lot of, you know, oil exploration stocks, etc. You know, it's the need for for um materials, you know, commodities

means that prices are going to go through the roof. So David, before we kind of move on here, can you give us a a quick refresher of let's say your your your GDX, your gold um energy targets, all all of the the targets for this let's

say this intermediate top here. >> Yes. Um so um for for I'll start with gold. The my GDX and GDXJ targets, those are the the miners and the junior miners. Um, I did raise targets there

twice in se in October, you know, my early October letter. Um, I raised GDX from 75 I think it was or maybe a 65 um up to um trying to think 120. Uh, I

raised GDXJ uh from 100 up to um 70. Uh, and then in my January letter, I raised those from there from

120 to 150 for GDX and from 170 to 210 on GDXJ. So, that's where I'm at now. Um on silver uh SIL which is large miners um major miners uh it was 75 and last

October I raised it to 150 uh and then I raised it to um I'm trying to think 180 I think is my current target. Um and for SIJ which I

had a long held target of 35 and it was you know it was 10 a year ago. It was people going I think that target is going to be hard to reach. Um I raised it in October from 35 to 60

and um yeah big these are big changes because I don't normally >> you know I'm looking ahead but that was you know I had Fortunately, I did see things that told me I I even as far away as I was that I needed to go higher. So,

I raised 60 and then I raised it again in in January to 75. So, that's where I'm at now. Um, in terms of oil, I don't I don't really expect oil to do anything but kind of trade in a range till the

bust hits. So my real focus I' I've been saying target is you know trading ranges um low 50s to 65 or mid60s um in the bust as I said 30 or below um postbust

or or and so for the um for XLE the you know the uh ETF for oil stocks um I the only target I have is um it was $20 but they split two for one. So, it's $10 for

XLE in the bust and that I think the stock is somewhere up in the high 40s maybe. Um, so that's a big drop. Um, and then coming out, I don't have postbust numbers, but you know, those things will

all go up a lot. Um, uh, copper. Um, my, as I said, my copper target currently is $8. Um I have a target for COPX which is the produ copper producers. Um had been

I think 75 um and I raised it to 100 last October and now it's at 120. So you know still good upside there I think. >> Um any others? I think that's pretty

much it. Um trying to think is there any other ETFs that really are important. >> We've kind of covered let's say those are the those are the upside targets here. Do you see you know is this a

roundabout let's say 30 to 50% pullback in many of that many of those numbers that you mentioned um in that in that initial bust. you know, in in the bust, I don't have, you know, different phases of the bust, but in the bust, you know,

if the market's going down 80%. >> Well, stock intermediate pop. Sorry, that's that's what I mean. >> Those those are my tops for for, you know, those are the the pre-bust tops. So, before we start going down, those

are peaks. Um, and in the bust where I think the market's going to go down 80%, I presume these things will go down pretty close to that. You know, they're cyclical stocks, um, their price are going to get hit, etc. Um, I will tell you this, just to give you an idea, you

know, we've had tremendous runs and and everybody says the miners have lagged. Yeah, they've lagged because silver's done so much and gold's done very well, but they've come up in many cases are up threefold or more in the last year. Um,

so I am calling for and I don't usually try to short term it, but I think this is a big enough correction. I think we're very close and I haven't seen what silver's doing today, but um I think we're very close to a, you know,

short-term top. >> Um where we could have a 20 to 30% correction in the price of silver, >> that's a big hit. So if if it can do that just in a correction, imagine what it can do in a bust. So same thing with the miners. I think the miners can come

down maybe 25% um in in a correction. So if they can do that in just a correction and and by the way that correction means we have another leg up from there. So silver my target 125 now is going to have to be raised I think at some point. Um but

I'll probably do it in during the correction. I want to see what we you know what what things look like during the correction. But I, you know, for sure I think I'm going to have to raise both gold and silver targets. Um, and um, not sure about the miners. Um,

>> what are those targets now? >> Uh, silver is 125. Um, so, you know, I would guess I'm probably going to be raising it by, you know, 40 or 50 bucks maybe, but I don't know that yet. I really want to see. Um

and then uh uh gold is 5,500. Uh you know, I wouldn't be surprised if I had to raise that. Um it's almost at 5,500 now. If we get a correction in gold, silver, like I said, could correct as much as 30%. Uh gold, I would guess

probably corrects 10 or a little more. So, you know, if gold's 5,500 at the top, because I think we're very close, whether it's this week or early next week, I think we're within days of a top probably or certainly a week of of a

top, week, week and a half um or less. If if gold tops near 5,500, you know, it can probably uh come back uh I'm trying to it might even do more

than 10, but but certainly uh something in the you know high fours uh would make sense. Um so it's not going to get hit as hard as silver by any means in a correction and and then come out of that and probably go to higher highs for both metals.

So David, once we get that, let's say that bust or that in in some ways that that global reset, does are are you optimistic? Does does life look something like like

a a good thing after that? >> Um I I think we're obviously we're late in it. what I call super cycle is a period a long cycle between two depressions. So the great depression of the 1930s and what I think will be an

even greater depression in the the 20 mid 2030s and beyond. >> So if I'm saying that the that's what we're headed for, I'm not optimistic about you know our future 10 years out.

I do think there are great opportunities postbust and what I tell everybody is you're fighting chance in what's coming I think is to get your financial house in order first going into the bus make sure you

don't ride it all the way back down. um you know, clean up any debt you can uh and then come out the other side and and if you invest properly, you know, there's there's certainly things that are going to be five and 10 baggers in

stocks. And you know, and for even the average investor, you you know, you're going to be able to coming out of the the bottom of the bust, you're going to be able to make three or four times your money um in mutual funds or anything um

you know, ETFs, I should say. Um but if you write it down, you're just trying to get your money back. If you if you've actually protected your capital, there's an opportunity to get your house in order and give you a fighting chance. What I what I describe in terms of what

comes after the recovery cycle that follows the bust is we're going to have um if I'm right um no money for welfare, no money for unemployment, no money or limit if at

all limited uh social security bankrupt Medicare um very very limited if at all you know Medicaid u you know you're just not going to have support system that everybody's grown up on. And that means you're everybody's fending for

themselves. That's not I, you know, I I can't pretend to envision exactly what that means, but it doesn't speak to me to something that's going to be friendly. I mean, it's, you know, there's going to be a crime's going to

go up big time. Violence probably going to go up big time as people, you know, fight for survival. Um, I hope I'm wrong. I hope I hope uh a lot of what Trump is doing cleans up a lot of the debt and that somehow the world gets its

act together and and we can kick the can down the road for lots more cycles. Um, I just have my doubts. >> David, is there anything that we that we

haven't covered? maybe you know something on your mind that let's say you don't get asked too often. Um >> yeah, I'll say the the thing we have not covered is bonds and and I think um

obviously rates are ticking up here again today. Um I I think we're very close and bonds are putting in a two-year bottom basically been you know it came down uh prior to that two years but they were basically been in a a very

um rounding bottom here kind of flat trading area for a couple of years you know tight trading range I think what we're going to see as we come we emerge from this on the upside in terms of bonds and on the downside in terms of

rates I think rates during this last whether it's three months, four months, five months, I don't know, but during this last run in the stock market, I think rates are going to be part of rates coming down are going to be part of what drives it.

So, you're going to have lower inflation, lower rates, an economy that um is still holding together. Maybe maybe more than that based on what we see right now, but at least holding together. um no you know you're going to hear no recession etc. um and that's

what I think drives this last move in in the stock market. A big part of it will be I think I think the 10-year can drop from you know we're currently four and a quarter uh it can drop to 3% in this next you know 3 four five months I think

probably more like five or six months but um if you can move from four and a quarter to 3% that's that's a lot of tailwind for the market um and then if I'm right at all about you know

second half of this year later in the year sometime this thing rolling over the market peaking and then the economy rolling over and it's starting to pick up speed um during the bust is when rates can fall from whether it's 2 and a half 3% when that really gets going I

think you could see a 10ear at zero so a 0% 10year and again people go that's impossible who's going to buy the Fed's going to be buying up every bond they can find to do QE of that magnitude um institutions They're going to be buying

for safe, you know, safety and saying, "We may not earn much, but we can't afford to lose, so we're going to buy treasuries." Um, and you know, short rates are probably going to be negative. So, it'll be happy to have zero and the 30-year might be selling at a quarter or

half percent yield. Um, but, you know, in a deflationary environment, that's that's money. Um, so, you know, I think the bond market that everybody's been so um anxious about may finally turn the

corner here pretty soon uh and be part of the the wind at her back. David, there's been an idea kind of thrown around here and obviously not officially, but an idea that if the if the Treasury and the Fed

instituted a a goldbacked bond of some sort that that would or or could spur more demand for that? Is do you think that that's a a possibility or something that could happen? Yeah, I I I struggle with um you know

the the things because Trump Trump certainly is willing to do things we've never done before and and they're thinking about trying to solve they're problem solvers I think more than we've had in the past. So you know stable coin

um uh gold back uh bond etc. I just don't think it's you can do anything in a magnitude that's gonna offset what our problem is. So it I think it can it can

temporarily cause some excitement and cause things to hold up beyond what I might expect. >> But ultimately I I think the numbers are just too huge. I mean this has been you know this has been 90 or 100 years in the making and you know we're at levels

where again this isn't the cycle where I worry about sovereign debt but think about when when the printing press goes away and most of that debt out there that we quote 330 trillion you know the biggest part of that increase in sovereign debt

in in this cycle certainly um when they reach the point where they can't service that there's nothing out there you can do I don't think to offset that kind of magnitude you know we throw around trillions today but you know hundreds of

trillions is a whole different story. >> Yeah. Well David um I think that's a good place to kind of end it for today. Uh tell everybody about your is it your quarterly letter that you write? >> Yeah I write a macro letter that I put out quarterly. Um it's by subscription.

Um I have to say um it's become problematic when uh ex Musk or his software engineers decided to change the messaging system to an encrypted system that's called

chat. Uh it's got a lot of uh wrinkles and a lot of um um glitches in it. um a lot of the time when I and so I used to say just direct message me and I'll provide you information on the on the um

my my letter because it's by co you know it has a cost um I still say that but then when we get to the next step where uh most the time they can see the what I put out there for them um but then when we start ex going back and forth to

exchange information etc um I don't chat is reliable. So I tell people then I'll provide an email and then we can communicate there. So so the initial step is to still direct message me you know through chat. Um but then just

understand that if if you don't you somehow don't get message from me it's the glitch in chat not me and so keep trying. You know, normally we can figure it out, but it's it's caused me a lot more um having to put in a lot more time or go back and forth with people because

lots of times it says message did not go through. >> Yeah. >> And yet they still will see it lots of times, but I can't see that my message was said. I I wish they could fix that because I don't understand how >> Why don't Why don't you give people your Do you want to give people your email instead?

>> No, I don't do that. That's why I haven't come to direct message because I >> I just don't want to fill my box with all kinds of people. So, >> your uh your your ex-profile is daveh contrarian, right? >> That's correct. And I am on X pretty

much every day. Um answering questions, uh commenting on what I see in the markets. Um so, that's pretty much how I communicate out there. Uh I know people look for websites and stuff. I do not have a website, but I am on X most of

the time. Um, so, you know, look for me there. >> Excellent. >> Perfect. David, always a pleasure to speak with you and, uh, we'll look forward to to doing it again. >> Yeah. Thanks, Tom.