Hans on Oliver Renick's Show

I got Hans Alrech joining us from Gamma Options Solutions. Uh Hans, you know, as we're talking about it's kind of a shaky couple of days. Are you seeing any new trends develop? Anything that's presented as opportunity in some of this chop between yesterday and today's

bounceback? >> I think the opportunity Oliver is probably in the things that have been working lately, which is really different from what we've seen last few years, right? is this is this broadening theme. I know starting to you know I remember somebody last year sort of said Hans you're a broken record it's all about AI AI but now the broken record

might be this broadening theme this move into if I look at my turbo scanner I can see these you know the strength is really in those industrials and some of the materials and some of those things uh you know even outside of the actual materials themselves the companies that facilitate this buildout that we're

seeing around the world this is going to be some of the more dependable uh type stuff that I want to be looking at this year things like quant services for example Okay. Um, okay. Telling about Quantum, but actually when I when you were mentioning industrial, I was thinking about FCX, which you talked to us about

um, a couple weeks back, right? And they've got earnings coming up. Um, part of that metals trade. Give me a quick thought on that one because I feel like if you're looking for copper and gold and the metals to hold strong, this could be a fun flyer for earnings. >> Yeah, and you get a little bit of of a

few different metals, right, when you play these things. And FCX, we talked about it and it's had a really great run. Uh, and there just isn't going to be enough copper. So, I call it my, you know, things you can drop on your toe theme. It could be things you can stub your toe on kind of stuff. And I think the world is kind of moving more towards

that. There's a real need for these things that we just can't necessarily make more of or pull more of out of the ground very easily. And so we really shifted from a a world that was kind of very focused on the sort of digital aspect of things, the hyperscalers, and it's moved into sort of this real world

which is very supported by a lot of the data out there that really shows that we've got this industrial resurgence going on. Uh and it is it is something that's durable, right? So again, I often mention people talk about, well, are these things cyclical? Is uh you know, is are memory chips cyclical? No,

they're structural. and the the buildout we're seeing is a very um durable growth trend. And so I can see this stuff continuing to go be especially because they've come from a very out of favor uh uh sort of outlook to something that's

you know being rediscovered again. >> Okay, I like that. And I like nulls trade too of being long gold which has been really the rock, no pun intended. Um, and then short silver is kind of the speculative uh trade to look at the higher beta swinging version of this.

But FCX, you kind of sprinkle that in there for an earnings flyer. Maybe you just bet on volatility, right? So you got direction for gold long, direction for silver short, and maybe you just bet on a big move, straddle or something like that, strangle into, you know, a long volatility position into Freeport.

Do you hate it? What do you think? No, I mean, look, it's had a good run, but I think what we got to keep in mind is that we've gone from really out of favor in some areas of the broadening uh and we've had some good rallies, but I think some of the balls in those areas are actually still enticing, right? Because uh we really haven't built in

what I call that rerating pricing, right? So, the possibility that we are going to look at a growth duration. So, meaning that all that means is we're going to look at perhaps 1 2 3 4 years of growth in some of these areas and it's not being priced in. And I think that if you look around that's happening

in a bunch of areas. Look at how consumer staples have done. I reported to some of my uh clients a couple weeks ago. I said, "Listen, consumer staples all is cheap. I know it's boring. I know it's not the most exciting thing in the world. It's not Nvidia. It's not all these all the crazy AI things, but it it

cheap." So when you start to combine that outlook on V compared to things that may have been forgotten, that becomes an enticing trade. >> I like the XLP chart. I think it's a fun one. It has been really rocking for the last two weeks, but then it went sideways in the last 5 days. So, a

little consolidation basically right at the uh one-year highs. I'm putting a chart right now on the XLP. Basically, 82 was an old level of resistance. So, if we punch through there, you think this thing can rock and roll?

>> I I think it can. I mean, this is sort of a fun little thing to watch, but I'm a little bit more interested in where the real growth is. So we talked about quanta earlier. So so I'm starting to sort of frame things or I'm continuing to frame things as there are going to be the disruptors and there are going to be the disrupted. And so we we see people

for example in the software sector which you've been talking about. You know you look at something like Adobe it's super super cheap. Look at the valuation. Look at the cash flow. Yeah. Tell me what the cash flow is 3 4 years from now. The market is telling you it does not know because there are going to be extreme winners and there are going to be extreme losers. And when there's

uncertainty there we don't really know how to value those things. So Google looks like it can do a whole bunch of stuff that 700 other companies that used to be able to do. That's that's a really big important thing that I think we have to look into this year is really understanding where the disrupted versus

uh disruptors are. >> Really good point. Uh PWR for Quanza, right? >> Yeah. PWR. So, you know, think about old companies. Sorry. Go ahead, Oliver. >> It's a good looking chart. >> It's a good looking chart. And I want you to think about it. It's kind of

boring, but I don't I think boring is beautiful suddenly a little bit again. So, you take something like this is really boots on the ground. It's people going out and and and building out the the grid, the electricity grid, very physical things that need to be done as this industrialization sort of plays

out. And I don't want to own the utility companies that are charging people because Trump's going to say, "Listen, you're charging too much. You can't do that." But I'll guess what? these guys get paid because the industrial buildout necessitates them to be involved. And that's how I'm kind of framing things.

Who are the dependable can't live without non-negotiable sorts of areas and this is one of those names that I think is interesting there. >> I like that point. Uh you mentioned Alphabet Google over Adobe. Great example of disruptor versus disrupted.

The Adobe chart looks miserable. Has for some time. I gotta say, my old show a year ago, I saw that one coming, same as you, that this was going to be majorly disrupted. Even though I use, you know, um Premiere for uh for video editing and uh graphics for the show, there's still

a lot that I can do via other AIS graphics that I've made that you just plug into uh MidJourney or, you know, sometimes chat GPT, but I use in my pocket and on the go all the time, Google Gemini. And there's a reason why

Khi says that's going to be number one AI by the end uh you know well it's the end of the year now but that's their number one ranked and the chart reflects it >> and and and that's you nailed it on the head Oliver because that's the thing it's not that Adobe is a bad company. It's not that they're going out of business. It's that we don't in in the

ultimate age of disruption which is what we're in. We we will over the next few years we'll have never seen anything like it in the history of markets. There are going to be companies with moes that were this wide that are now this this wide even even more narrow is what I'm trying to say right you thought they had this sort of massive moat and they don't

and that's really the the core of what we're seeing here in this world of everything being kind of rerated and I think that's it's you cannot forget that so valuation not so important maybe you want to start looking at well you know how's the balance sheet look are they going to be able to battle it out for

the next three or four years and maybe this is cheap maybe it doubles because they figured it But we know that markets don't like uncertainty and uncertainty is what is is is very much what some of these stocks are dealing with right now. >> Your point that you made in our last conversation about the cloud companies

that are really getting disrupted. I think you nailed that one, Hans. It's one also that um I thought the writing was pretty clear on the wall really a year and a half ago as well, but it took a while to kick in. Um they did went nowhere for most of last year. They

never really recovered from the tariff selloff and now lately they're getting hammered again. So is this a way to hedge the market? Should we be short something like CLOU while we long PWR and long Alphabet and the other stuff or is that too much leverage? >> Well, I mean it's, you know, to add a

little bit of a sell-off. I do think there's a potential for a bounce here, but ultimately I think that area is quite challenged and I think that's part of what the broadening is about, right? The broadening is about this world that has done well for 2 or 3 years which was fairly narrow. Think of the funnel that kind of opens. It's very narrow at the

bottom and now that world is challenged. There's competition. There's regulation. There's President Trump saying it doesn't like this or that. There's, you know, there's a lot of stuff that is now uncertain about that area. Very easy for investors to say, well, listen, where is the where is the is there no uncertainty

or is there little uncertainty? Well, it's going out into the world and saying industry A, B, and C or company A, B, and C can now use AI to improve productivity. And that is without question, some companies are going to are going to harness that and make the most of it. So, the the the in the

market is really just shifting from what was a certainty to now questionable in some ways to areas which is the rest of the world where we think that AI is going to really really make a difference and it will. >> Yeah. Well, a lot of those software companies seemed like they were ripe for some M&A, some combos. So, I think AI is

going to facilitate some of that. You've had good eyes on that trade. Love the stock specifics. Thank you, Hans. >> Thanks, Oliver. >> Good stuff. Hans Albert, CEO, Gamma Option Solutions. Let's do an ETF deep dive when we come back. If you're just catching on to the gold and silver mania

the last couple months, you'll want to pay attention because my next guest was all over it when he kicked off his ETF. L E N.